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Year 12 Methods (Unit 3 & 4) Refresher on probability and discrete random variables

Discrete random variables

20 practice questions 0 video lessons Theory + worked examples

In Year 12 Mathematical Methods (Queensland, QCAA), a discrete random variable \(X\) takes separate values, each with a probability \(P(X=x)\). The values and probabilities form its probability distribution, valid when every \(P(X=x)\ge 0\) and the total is \(1\). You solve for an unknown probability, read off cumulative and interval probabilities, use the discrete uniform distribution, and show a distribution as a table or column graph.

A discrete random variable \(X\) takes separate, countable values. Its probability function \(P(X=x)\) gives the probability of each value, and the full list of values with their probabilities is the probability distribution. It is displayed as a table or a column graph (one column per value, its height the probability).

A distribution is valid exactly when every \(P(X=x)\ge 0\) and the probabilities sum to \(1\). Both conditions matter: a total of \(1\) with a negative entry is not a valid distribution. Setting the total equal to \(1\) lets you solve for an unknown constant \(k\) or \(c\).

When the outcomes are equally likely the distribution is discrete uniform, with \(P(X=x)=\dfrac{1}{n}\) for each of the \(n\) values (a fair die, a fair spinner). A non-uniform distribution is often built from a context using relative frequencies — a count divided by the total. Once you have the distribution, add entries to get cumulative and interval probabilities.

Key idea. A valid distribution has every \(P(X=x)\ge 0\) and \(\sum P(X=x)=1\). Set the total to \(1\) to solve for an unknown; add the relevant entries for \(P(X\le k)\), \(P(X>k)\) or \(P(a\le X\le b)\).
\(x\)1234
\(P(X=x)\)0.10.30.40.2
The distribution as a table: probabilities total \(1\)
A probability distribution as a column graphA column graph with four columns of heights 0.1, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.2 above the values 1, 2, 3 and 4, the heights adding to 1. 1 2 3 4 P(X=x)
The same distribution as a column graph

A valid probability distribution satisfies both conditions:

\[P(X=x)\ge 0 \quad\text{for all } x \qquad \sum_x P(X=x)=1\]

Cumulative and interval probabilities are sums of entries:

\[P(X\le k)=\sum_{x\le k}P(X=x) \qquad P(X>k)=1-P(X\le k)\]

Discrete uniform distribution on \(n\) equally likely values:

\[P(X=x)=\dfrac{1}{n}\]
Solving for an unknown. Set \(\sum P(X=x)=1\) and solve for the constant. If it is a quadratic, reject any root that makes a probability negative or greater than \(1\).

How to work with a discrete probability distribution

  1. Check or enforce validity. Confirm every \(P(X=x)\ge 0\) and that the probabilities sum to \(1\); if a constant is unknown, set the total equal to \(1\) and solve for it.
  2. Reject impossible values. For a quadratic in \(k\) or \(c\), discard any solution that gives a negative probability or one above \(1\).
  3. Read cumulative and interval probabilities. Add the relevant entries, watching the boundary: \(P(X\le k)\) includes \(x=k\); \(P(X>k)\) excludes it; \(P(a\le X\le b)\) adds every value from \(a\) to \(b\).
  4. Recognise uniform or build from data. Equally likely outcomes give \(P(X=x)=\dfrac{1}{n}\); otherwise use relative frequencies from a context to construct the table, then represent it as a column graph if asked.
Column graph. One column per value, each with height equal to its probability. The heights must be non-negative and add to \(1\).
Example 1 — Solve for an unknown
The distribution of \(X\) is \(0.1, 0.3, k, 0.2\) for \(x=1,2,3,4\). Find \(k\).
Solution
\(0.1+0.3+k+0.2\)\(=\)\(1\)
\(0.6+k\)\(=\)\(1\)
\(k\)\(=\)\(0.4\)

So \(k=\mathbf{0.4}\), which is non-negative, so the distribution is valid.

Example 2 — Cumulative probability
For \(P(X=x)=0.15,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.1\) at \(x=1,2,3,4,5\), find \(P(X\le 3)\) and \(P(X>3)\).
Solution
\(P(X\le 3)\)\(=\)\(0.15+0.25+0.3=0.7\)
\(P(X>3)\)\(=\)\(0.2+0.1=0.3\)

Note \(P(X>3)=1-P(X\le 3)\), so \(\mathbf{0.7}\) and \(\mathbf{0.3}\).

Example 3 — Discrete uniform
A fair spinner has five equal sectors numbered \(1\) to \(5\); \(X\) is the number spun. Find \(P(X=x)\) and \(P(X\le 3)\).
Solution
\(P(X=x)\)\(=\)\(\dfrac{1}{5}=0.2\)
\(P(X\le 3)\)\(=\)\(3\times 0.2=0.6\)

Each value has probability \(\mathbf{0.2}\); \(P(X\le 3)=\mathbf{0.6}\).

Example 4 — Build a distribution from data
A bag has \(10\) tickets: five \(1\)s, three \(2\)s and two \(3\)s. One is drawn and \(X\) is its number. Find the distribution and \(P(X\ge 2)\).
Solution
\(P(1),P(2),P(3)\)\(=\)\(0.5,\ 0.3,\ 0.2\)
\(P(X\ge 2)\)\(=\)\(0.3+0.2=0.5\)

The probabilities total \(1\), and \(P(X\ge 2)=\mathbf{0.5}\).

Common pitfalls

A total of \(1\) is not enough. The probabilities must also all be non-negative. A table that sums to \(1\) but contains a negative entry is not a valid distribution.
Off-by-one at the boundary. \(P(X\le k)\) includes \(x=k\), but \(P(Xk)\) do not. Read the inequality carefully before adding entries.
Keep both roots in check. Solving for a constant can give a quadratic; discard any root that makes a probability negative or greater than \(1\).

Frequently asked questions

What is a discrete random variable?

A variable \(X\) that takes separate, countable values, each with a probability \(P(X=x)\); the values and probabilities form its distribution.

When is a distribution valid?

When every \(P(X=x)\ge 0\) and \(\sum P(X=x)=1\). Both conditions are needed.

How do you solve for an unknown probability?

Set the sum of all probabilities equal to \(1\) and solve for the constant, rejecting any value that makes a probability negative.

How do you find \(P(X\le k)\) or \(P(a\le X\le b)\)?

Add the relevant entries. \(P(X\le k)\) includes \(x=k\); \(P(a\le X\le b)\) adds every value from \(a\) to \(b\) inclusive.

What is a discrete uniform distribution?

One where the \(n\) outcomes are equally likely, so \(P(X=x)=\dfrac{1}{n}\) for each value, as for a fair die or spinner.

How do you build a distribution from data?

Use relative frequencies: each probability is the count of that value divided by the total number of outcomes.

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